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The next Axie infinity

Play-to-earn gaming could be getting ready to explode

The market has taken a hammering. If you’ve been hanging around crypto for a while, you already know the score: these are the times when strong stomachs are tested, and huge opportunities are on offer.

Crypto Banter by Crypto Banter
January 24, 2022
in Breaking News
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The market has taken a hammering. If you’ve been hanging around crypto for a while, you already know the score: these are the times when strong stomachs are tested, and huge opportunities are on offer.

This is why we decided to check in with Hustle, to find out how current market conditions might affect crypto gaming (and what opportunities it might provide).

As usual, he pulled through.

  • Play-to-earn gaming is the ultimate market hedge
  • Bear-trends attract massive inflows of users
  • Users lead price action
  • Fundamentals keep users (and communities!) active 

Hustle tweeted the below this weekend. Let’s unpack it. 

Everything was down after the May crash and Axie Infinity’s rise began.

Why? Because gamers are there to play games.
Users triumph anything. Money leaves the market on dips, not players.

Games w/ active users will be the first to bounce, followed by the rest of Crypto Gaming.

— Jonny 👾 (@0xHustlepedia) January 22, 2022

I know what AXS did last summer

Rewind to June 2022, when the market was reeling from a brutal correction. 

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD 

In the midst of all that panic and uncertainty, something incredible happened: Axie Infinity (AXS) went on one of the most staggering runs in recent memory.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD 

Nothing happens in a vacuum, and this insane rally (2,124%!) was no freak event. Crucially, AXS didn’t go parabolic in spite of, but rather as a result of, the bearish market conditions. 

Gamers don’t care about Bitcoin

Hard as it might be to believe, gamers don’t care about whether Bitcoin is above or below the 200-day moving average. They certainly don’t care whether FTM has flipped Solana in TVL. They’re here to game, irrespective of market conditions. And many of them are doing it to pay the bills. 

That’s the beauty of blockchain-based gaming: at its best, it empowers players (through innovative play-to-earn economies) to monetize their activity, regardless of any factors outside their control. 

How Axie bucked the market trend, and why the price exploded

Just check out this historical activity chart for Axie Infinity. 

Source: https://dappradar.com/ethereum/games/axie-infinity

The number of users began a parabolic ascent around June 2021, while the rest of the market was in the midst of disaster. 

Coincidence? Quite the opposite. It’s precisely because play-to-earn gaming is the least risky way to stack your favorite gaming currency that players increase their activity when the market is down. Think of it as a pivot away from nightmarish market conditions, into an economy that functions with or without Bitcoin!

Crazy correlations

Here’s the cool thing: If we compare the price of AXS with the game’s growth in users, we see that the charts align almost perfectly – right until the most recent market dump. Here’s a side by side comparison. 

Sources: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/axie-infinity/  
Sources: https://dappradar.com/ethereum/games/axie-infinity

You know what’s even cooler? The user growth (orange line) has begun moving up again, just as the market is trending down!

Next Axie on the horizon? 

So, that’s the thesis: A downtrending market invites an uptick in user activity. But what can we do with this information? 

First, let’s see if the pattern is repeating elsewhere. After all, there’s a difference between an isolated example and an emerging pattern; multiple data points signify a trend.

Hustle points to another game following suit: Play-to-earn horse racing platform Pegaxy (PGX) is following an almost identical trend to Axie Infinity. 

PGX trending just like Axie when it began its run in the bear market.

Users going up, price is going strong against the current market trend, up 47% the last 30 days.

The data doesn’t lie, look at the orange lines (users) v the chart patterns. Users = Value in Crypto Gaming. pic.twitter.com/yzyofU8VMu

— Jonny 👾 (@0xHustlepedia) January 23, 2022

PGX up 47% on the week, while the rest of the market is dumping. And again, notice the uncanny similarity between the growth of users and positive price action. The charts line up too well! 

Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/pegaxy/

We talk about relative strength, but certain play-to-earn projects will have brute strength against the rest of the market when it reverses to the upside. And the fruits of their rewards will be even sweeter!

Data doesn’t lie: how to spot the next big thing

Remember, price is a lagging indicator – it follows the user count. If you’re looking to find those play-to-earn projects likely to thrive in a bear trend, see where the players are flowing. Then ask if the price is reacting. At that point, your job is to figure out why. 

Source: https://dappradar.com/polygon/games/pegaxy

Pegaxy isn’t attracting such numbers for no reason: it’s all backed by rock-solid fundamentals. The game has taken some of Axie Infinity’s best features – breeding, renting, as well as two-token economics (PGX/VIS vs AXS/SLP) –  and developed them even further. It has what many consider to be the best built-in rental system in the space, a thriving scholarship system, and a wide array of possible income streams for players: Users can rent out horses, scholars can race them (for free), and both parties can benefit from the rewards.

Source: https://pegaxy.io/

Learn the fundamentals

It’s all well and good listening to Hustle, but your best bet is always to play the game, and become familiar with the product itself. Once you understand how to make money in the game, you can make a genuinely informed decision: do you want to invest in the coin? 

Would you be better off playing the game and stacking up in-game assets (from which you can earn actively or passively?). Maybe both? 

The point is, you need to understand how these things work before you can assess whether or not they’re likely to fly.

Banter wisdom

The market is dumping, retail traders are being driven out, and 99% of tokens are plummeting. Meanwhile, some play-to-earn projects are following in Axie’s footsteps, seeing a huge uptick in user activity against the overall market sentiment. History doesn’t always repeat itself, but it does tend to rhyme, and bear trends are setting the stage for the play-to-earn to shine. Great fundamentals will attract huge numbers of users, and price tends to map user activity. The data doesn’t lie.

Tags: ALTCOINSAxie Infinity (AXS)GAMING & NFTsPegaxy (PGX)
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